Game 2 was a crushing loss. The Giants got a terrific outing from Matt Cain and actually scored runs without help from the Braves' defense. They had a 4-1 lead going into the 8th inning set up perfectly for Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson to shut the door. That was their formula for success all season: give a lead to the bullpen and game over.
Eric Hinske's 8th-inning homerun in Game 3 had the potential to be the ultimate back-breaker for the Giants in the NLDS. How were they going to respond to a gut-wrenching loss like that one? But Travis Ishikawa, Freddy Sanchez, and Aubrey Huff each gave the at-bats of their lives in the 9th inning, and thankfully for the Giants, Brooks Conrad was playing 2nd base for the Braves. Most teams would have folded after Hinske's homerun. But these Giants have shown a toughness and grit all season that allows them to shove aside heart-breaking moments.
We all knew the Giants were deep in pitching, but did anyone expect the dominance the starting rotation displayed against the Braves? I thought they'd be good, but not historically great. Here are the combined numbers that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner posted in the NLDS:
29 innings, 17 hits, 3 earned runs, 5 walks, 36 strikeouts
That adds up to a 0.93 ERA, which by the way, was the third-lowest starters' ERA by any NL team in the playoffs, and a 0.76 WHIP. Amazing numbers.
Granted, the Braves had a lineup that made the Giants look like the 1927 Yankees, and the Giants will surely face a greater challenge going against Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth. I live in Philadelphia and I hear 24/7 about how great the Phillies' big-three starters Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels are. They are terrific, at times unhittable, and what they did in the NLDS, shutting down the Reds' league-leading offense, was very impressive. But the Giants will counter with starters of their own who are just as good, and perfectly capable of shutting down the Phillies' offense. The Phillies' starting 8 position players have hit a collective .231 against the Giants' starters in their careers.
The Phillies are the most complete team in baseball, and on paper, they are a better team than the Giants. They have an envious combination of dominant starting pitching and forceful hitting. There's a reason why they are heavily favored to win this series, and the Giants are going to have to improve their play dramatically in order to have a chance.
First off, there cannot be any drop-off in the starting pitching from the Atlanta series. Getting through Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez is going to be a lot harder than facing Derek Lee, Brian McCann, and whoever the Braves batted 5th and 6th. The starters need to attack the strike zone just as they did against the Braves. The Phillies have a lineup full of patient hitters, and they will wear out opposing pitchers who are not consistently throwing strikes. Also, the pitchers must control the Phillies' running game. The Phillies have a reputation of being a homerun-hitting team, and while that's true, many don't know that they have the best stolen base percentage in baseball over the last couple of years. Lincecum and Sanchez have had problems holding runners all season, and they'll have to do a much better job of making sure the Phillies' baserunners don't get sizable leads. If the starters can hold the Phillies to one or two runs over six-seven innings, the Giants will have a chance.
Of course, most people are giving the Giants a slim chance in this series because of the difference between the two teams' offenses. It is true that the Phillies do have a better lineup, a group that is more than capable of throwing a crooked number on the scoreboard. But one thing the Phillies have demonstrated this season which they didn't show the last two years is that they are prone to slumps. Their offense didn't do a darn thing against the Reds' mediocre pitching. They won Game 2 because Jay Bruce lost a fly ball in the lights, and they scored their two runs in Game 3 on an Orlando Cabrera throwing error and a 375-foot, Cincinnati band-box special, Chase Utley homerun. Many fans here in Philly think that their Phils are going to out-slug the Giants, but I don't think that will be the case. The Giants can shut down the Phillies offense, and I predict that all the games are going to be low-scoring, tight matches.
The offense has to wake up, particularly at the top of the lineup. Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez, and Aubrey Huff went a combined 8-47 (.170 avg) in the NLDS. The Phillies are not going to give as many gifts on defense as the Braves did, and so the Giants top to bottom must take smart at-bats, and try to draw deep counts from the Phillies' pitchers. Also, the Giants need to have better at-bats with runners in scoring position, particularly with runners on 3rd base with less than 2 outs. They were atrocious in situational hitting against the Braves, and the Phillies are a team that won't forgive the opposition's mistakes. Both the Phillies and Giants are in great shape at the back of their bullpens, but the Phillies have a huge weakness in their middle relief, the bridge between their starters and Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. If the Giants can force the Philly starters to throw a lot of pitches early, and get to the likes of JC Romero and Chad Durbin by the 5th or 6th inning, they'll have a great shot to do some damage.
All of the "experts" on ESPN and other outlets have picked the Phillies. The Giants are heavy underdogs in this series, but I still like their chances. They're going to play loose, like they have nothing to lose, and the Phillies are going to be under a tremendous amount of pressure. Believe me; Philadelphia, which has always been an Eagles town, is crazy about their Phillies, and they expect nothing less than a World Series parade down Broad Street. One thing we can be sure about is that the Phillies are going to have their hands full with this scrappy Giants team. The Phillies may very well win this NLCS, securing their 3rd-consecutive NL Pennant, but the Giants will give them a serious run for their money. Maybe with a little bit of torture and resiliency, the Giants can pull off the upset.
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