A Terrible Weekend, But It Could Have Been Worse

After a rough 12-game stretch against the Padres, Phillies, Cardinals, and Reds, this weekend's home series against the D-Backs was supposed to be easy pickings for the Giants. The D-Backs are awful, sitting in last place, and the Giants had won 7 straight against them before Friday night. Plus, one thing the Giants had done well all season was beat up the weaker competition, as evidenced by their 36-12 record against teams below. 500 entering Friday night.

But except for today's somewhat miraculous win to prevent an embarrassing sweep, the Giants didn't show up to play this weekend. They slumped in all areas: pitching, hitting, and defense. The Giants actually looked like a last-place team this weekend. Thankfully, the Phillies swept the Padres in San Diego, leaving the Giants within striking distance of both the NL West and the Wild Card.

If Jose Guillen and Bengie Molina were to compete in a race, who would win? It'd be close, and that's alarming considering that Guillen is in charge of patrolling the spacious right field at AT&T Park. He can still swing the bat, but he's like a statue on defense, and he definitely cost his pitchers a few runs this series. It's time for Bruce Bochy to start Cody Ross or Nate Schierholtz more just to upgrade the defense and to help the pitching staff as they try to get out of their collective slump. Guillen's bat certainly lengthens the lineup, but whatever contributions he gives at the plate are negated by his hideous defense.

September could not come sooner for Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. Here are the ugly August numbers for Lincecum and Zito:

Lincecum: 0-5, 7.82 ERA, 1.83 WHIP

Zito: 0-4, 7.76 ERA, 1.91 WHIP

Lincecum took a step back on Friday night from his outing in St. Louis. He didn't have any command of his fastball, the most important pitch for any pitcher. Also, Lincecum was tipping his pitches, as an astute cameraman caught footage of Stephen Drew relaying signals to Adam LaRoche before he hit that monstrous 3-run homerun. He allowed only 1 run in his remaining 5 innings of work, but he wasn't fooling any of the D-Backs' hitters. He got lucky that the wind and the fog on Friday night tracked out a few fly balls that would have been homeruns earlier in the week.

Zito had been a 2nd-half pitcher throughout his entire career, except for this season. He actually was terrific for his first four starts after the All-Star Break, but he ran into a brick wall in August. He might benefit from an extra day or two of rest before his next start. His fastball velocity, like Lincecum, has dropped a few notches. Zito is effective when he's throwing his fastball 87-88 MPH, but he has no chance when he misses with a 84 MPH fastball. That's like batting practice for major league hitters.

As I've written many times, the 2010 Giants will live and die with their starting pitching. Matt Cain has been the only consistent member of the rotation in the 2nd half. This team can say goodbye to postseason aspirations unless the pitchers carry this team on their shoulders.

Giants Take Two Of Three From Reds In Wild Series

The Giants ended a deflating road trip being shut out at the hands of Cardinals' starter and potential NL ROY Jaime Garcia, who needed only 89 pitches to carve through the Giants through nine innings. The offense looked dormant all last week, which was not a good sign considering that the Reds are the National League's best offense.

But magically, the Bay Area experienced a searing heat wave, and the Giants looked like the 1927 Yankees, out-slugging the Reds en route to winning two out of three. In the three games series, the Giants scored 38 runs on 53 hits.

Today's loss was heartbreaking, considering the Giants came back from a 10-1 deficit. Brian Wilson, despite the Sandoval error, should have been able to get through the 9th inning with a save. But I want to focus on the positives, particularly the reemergence of the Kung Fu Panda.

Pablo Sandoval swung the bat this series like he did all of last year when he hit .330 with 25 HR. He went 10-16 in the three games against the Reds with 2 doubles, 1 homerun, and 7 RBIs, and even his outs were solid contact. Sandoval has enjoyed a very nice August, hitting .302 with 5 HR, .570 SLG, and a .903 OPS. The Panda finding his swing would be beyond lightning in a bottle for the Giants, as we saw last season that he's capable of single-handedly carrying a team in postseason contention. Add him with Buster Posey, Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff, and a suddenly-hot Freddy Sanchez, and the Giants now have a somewhat deep lineup that can complement the pitching staff. The Giants will not average 12 runs a game as they did this series, but their offense more than made up for two shaky outings by Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner.

Giants Finish Awful 2-4 Road Trip

The Giants posted a 20-8 record in July, which was 2nd-best in the Majors behind only the mighty Yankees. They were pitching well and scoring runs. Many people declared then that the Giants were going to secure their first playoff berth since 2003.

It's a shame that July had to end, because August rolled around and the Giants are 9-11 so far this month. They just concluded a 2-4 road trip through Philadelphia and St. Louis and got their brains beaten in three of those games, including 9-0 today.

It's easy to see why the Giants were so good in July considering the teams they played that month: Arizona, Milwaukee, Washington...basically, the bottom-feeders of the National League. However, this month they've faced the elite teams in the league: Atlanta, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cincinnati starting tomorrow. The only series the Giants have won in August was the four-game set against the lowly Cubs. But against the stiff competition, the Giants have played like a second-tier team. No wonder they're 6 games out in the NL West and 2 games behind the Phillies in the Wild-Card.

In a recent blog post, the great Andy Baggarly outlined the Giants' record against teams with winning records versus those with losing records. The Giants play terrific baseball against weaker teams, as a playoff hopeful team should do, with a 36-12 record. However, after getting crushed the by the Cardinals today, the Giants' record against winning teams is 33-44. Baggs also compared the Giants' play against teams over .500 with the other contenders and here's how they stack up:

Braves: 34-31

Cardinals: 31-24

Phillies: 38-33

Reds: 24-28

Padres: 32-31

Clearly, the Giants at 33-44 fare the worst against winning teams out of the National League teams in the playoff race. The Giants have no business considering themselves a playoff contender unless they drastically improve their play against the National League's elite. The real playoff teams are the ones that beat up on the weaker competition and hang tough with the best. The Giants are only doing half the battle.

Early in the season, Aubrey Huff told Matt Downs, "When we hit, we win." He should have also said, "When we don't pitch, we have no chance." When the Giants struggle, it usually involves the offense not scoring enough runs to support the pitching staff. The offense has certainly scuffled as of late, averaging only 2.7 runs/game over the last nine contests. But the starting pitching staff, which is the bread and butter of this team, has been abysmal of late. In many of the games this month, the Giants have been out by the 4th or 5th inning.

Here are the ugly numbers for the Giants' starters over the past 17 games (Giants are 7-10 with 3 of those wins against the 51-74 Cubs):

93 innings, 109 hits, 56 earned runs, 29 walks, 77 strikeouts

2-10 record, 5.42 ERA, 1.48 WHIP

Those numbers speak for themselves, and it's apparent why the Giants have slumped in August. Jonathan Sanchez pitched a gem in Philly on Thursday night (I was there!), but the only member of the rotation who has consistently pitched well this month is Madison Bumgarner, the 21-year-old rookie 5th starter. Zito has pitched in the playoffs before, and Cain and Lincecum, while still young, have been around the block a few times, but these veterans are not leading by example. As a result, this team is falling fast. Despite their chronic offensive woes, the Giants are built on pitching, and it's this starting staff that is going to determine whether or not the Giants are playing October baseball. The great Mychael Urban put it best on his Twitter account: "If the starters don't get their s$&t together fast, this season is over!!!"

The Lincecum Quandary

What's wrong with Tim Lincecum? That is certainly the most popular question in San Francisco right now.

After a thrilling, extra-inning victory against the Padres yesterday afternoon, the Giants had a chance to finally win a series against San Diego and move within 1.5 games of 1st place. It certainly wasn't the right time for Tim Lincecum, the staff ace, to turn in his worst outing of the season: 3.2 innings, 6 runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 93 pitches. The Giants now stand 3.5 games behind the Padres, and are tied with Phillies for the wild-card lead entering this week's crucial series in Philadelphia.

Lincecum was the most dominant pitcher in baseball the last two seasons, but his numbers now are alarmingly pedestrian. In fact, he has the worst statistics out of the Giants' starting pitchers. His 3.62 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are right in the middle of the pack of the National League. He's already given up more homeruns (13) this year than he did all last season. His fall to mediocrity is especially surprising considering how dominant he was at the beginning of the season. Lincecum started the season 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 43:7 K:BB ratio in 35.1 innings, well on his way to a 3rd-straight Cy Young. He was throwing his fastball with good velocity and movement, and his change-up was as devastating as ever.

What's happened since then? Most noticeably, his fastball velocity has dropped considerably. Instead of pitching around 94-96 MPH, he's now at 89-93 MPH. As a result, his change-up, which he throws at about 84-86 MPH is not effective because of the smaller disparity in velocity, and he hasn't been getting as many swings-and-misses as beforehand. Lincecum the past two seasons was a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner because of his pinpoint command, as evidenced by his over 4:1 K:BB ratio the last two years. But lately, his command, particularly with the fastball, has been all over the place. In today's game, he was constantly in 3-0 or 3-1 counts, and all pitchers, no matter how great they are, are going to lose if they're giving hitters the advantage.

What has caused the struggles? I don't think even Lincecum knows the answer to that question. He has said on many occasions that it's a mechanical issue, and it surely could be that because of his complicated delivery. Even though no one on the Giants is saying this, it could possibly be that he has a tired arm. Mychael Urban has said on KNBR that Lincecum has been inconsistent in his long-toss routine, the foundation of his throwing program. Every pitcher is expected to go through ups and downs; baseball is a humbling game. But Lincecum is the ace of a team that has postseason expectations, and it hurts the team even more when he goes through rough patches.

It's amazing that the Giants are on pace to win 91 games without steady contributions from their two star players from last year: Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval, who's defense has significantly regressed at 3rd base. Their winning play this season is really a testament to how great Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, and Brian Wilson have been. But this team, built on pitching, isn't going anywhere without Lincecum. He better find out immediately what's ailing him because his team's playoff chances ride strongly on his arm.