After a thrilling, extra-inning victory against the Padres yesterday afternoon, the Giants had a chance to finally win a series against San Diego and move within 1.5 games of 1st place. It certainly wasn't the right time for Tim Lincecum, the staff ace, to turn in his worst outing of the season: 3.2 innings, 6 runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 93 pitches. The Giants now stand 3.5 games behind the Padres, and are tied with Phillies for the wild-card lead entering this week's crucial series in Philadelphia.
Lincecum was the most dominant pitcher in baseball the last two seasons, but his numbers now are alarmingly pedestrian. In fact, he has the worst statistics out of the Giants' starting pitchers. His 3.62 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are right in the middle of the pack of the National League. He's already given up more homeruns (13) this year than he did all last season. His fall to mediocrity is especially surprising considering how dominant he was at the beginning of the season. Lincecum started the season 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 43:7 K:BB ratio in 35.1 innings, well on his way to a 3rd-straight Cy Young. He was throwing his fastball with good velocity and movement, and his change-up was as devastating as ever.
What's happened since then? Most noticeably, his fastball velocity has dropped considerably. Instead of pitching around 94-96 MPH, he's now at 89-93 MPH. As a result, his change-up, which he throws at about 84-86 MPH is not effective because of the smaller disparity in velocity, and he hasn't been getting as many swings-and-misses as beforehand. Lincecum the past two seasons was a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner because of his pinpoint command, as evidenced by his over 4:1 K:BB ratio the last two years. But lately, his command, particularly with the fastball, has been all over the place. In today's game, he was constantly in 3-0 or 3-1 counts, and all pitchers, no matter how great they are, are going to lose if they're giving hitters the advantage.
What has caused the struggles? I don't think even Lincecum knows the answer to that question. He has said on many occasions that it's a mechanical issue, and it surely could be that because of his complicated delivery. Even though no one on the Giants is saying this, it could possibly be that he has a tired arm. Mychael Urban has said on KNBR that Lincecum has been inconsistent in his long-toss routine, the foundation of his throwing program. Every pitcher is expected to go through ups and downs; baseball is a humbling game. But Lincecum is the ace of a team that has postseason expectations, and it hurts the team even more when he goes through rough patches.
It's amazing that the Giants are on pace to win 91 games without steady contributions from their two star players from last year: Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval, who's defense has significantly regressed at 3rd base. Their winning play this season is really a testament to how great Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, and Brian Wilson have been. But this team, built on pitching, isn't going anywhere without Lincecum. He better find out immediately what's ailing him because his team's playoff chances ride strongly on his arm.
No comments:
Post a Comment