The Giants posted a 20-8 record in July, which was 2nd-best in the Majors behind only the mighty Yankees. They were pitching well and scoring runs. Many people declared then that the Giants were going to secure their first playoff berth since 2003.
It's a shame that July had to end, because August rolled around and the Giants are 9-11 so far this month. They just concluded a 2-4 road trip through Philadelphia and St. Louis and got their brains beaten in three of those games, including 9-0 today.
It's easy to see why the Giants were so good in July considering the teams they played that month: Arizona, Milwaukee, Washington...basically, the bottom-feeders of the National League. However, this month they've faced the elite teams in the league: Atlanta, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cincinnati starting tomorrow. The only series the Giants have won in August was the four-game set against the lowly Cubs. But against the stiff competition, the Giants have played like a second-tier team. No wonder they're 6 games out in the NL West and 2 games behind the Phillies in the Wild-Card.
In a recent blog post, the great Andy Baggarly outlined the Giants' record against teams with winning records versus those with losing records. The Giants play terrific baseball against weaker teams, as a playoff hopeful team should do, with a 36-12 record. However, after getting crushed the by the Cardinals today, the Giants' record against winning teams is 33-44. Baggs also compared the Giants' play against teams over .500 with the other contenders and here's how they stack up:
Braves: 34-31
Cardinals: 31-24
Phillies: 38-33
Reds: 24-28
Padres: 32-31
Clearly, the Giants at 33-44 fare the worst against winning teams out of the National League teams in the playoff race. The Giants have no business considering themselves a playoff contender unless they drastically improve their play against the National League's elite. The real playoff teams are the ones that beat up on the weaker competition and hang tough with the best. The Giants are only doing half the battle.
Early in the season, Aubrey Huff told Matt Downs, "When we hit, we win." He should have also said, "When we don't pitch, we have no chance." When the Giants struggle, it usually involves the offense not scoring enough runs to support the pitching staff. The offense has certainly scuffled as of late, averaging only 2.7 runs/game over the last nine contests. But the starting pitching staff, which is the bread and butter of this team, has been abysmal of late. In many of the games this month, the Giants have been out by the 4th or 5th inning.
Here are the ugly numbers for the Giants' starters over the past 17 games (Giants are 7-10 with 3 of those wins against the 51-74 Cubs):
93 innings, 109 hits, 56 earned runs, 29 walks, 77 strikeouts
2-10 record, 5.42 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Those numbers speak for themselves, and it's apparent why the Giants have slumped in August. Jonathan Sanchez pitched a gem in Philly on Thursday night (I was there!), but the only member of the rotation who has consistently pitched well this month is Madison Bumgarner, the 21-year-old rookie 5th starter. Zito has pitched in the playoffs before, and Cain and Lincecum, while still young, have been around the block a few times, but these veterans are not leading by example. As a result, this team is falling fast. Despite their chronic offensive woes, the Giants are built on pitching, and it's this starting staff that is going to determine whether or not the Giants are playing October baseball. The great Mychael Urban put it best on his Twitter account: "If the starters don't get their s$&t together fast, this season is over!!!"
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